Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Feb 22 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Unsettled to active periods were due to the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately 700 km/s to 580 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 23 and 24 February as a coronal hole high speed stream continues to be geoeffective. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on 25 February.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 22 Feb 076

Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 22 Feb 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 015/017

Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 010/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 010/020-010/020-008/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 35/35/25

Minor storm 20/20/15

Major-severe storm 10/10/05