Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Feb 23 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of an isolated active period on 24 and 25 February. On 26 February, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 23 Feb 075

Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 075/075/080

90 Day Mean 23 Feb 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 011/012

Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 008/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 008/015-008/015-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/15

Minor storm 10/10/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/20

Minor storm 15/15/10

Major-severe storm 05/05/01