Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Feb 26 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Several low level B-class events were observed from a region rotating onto the SE limb.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. An isolated C-class event is possible from the new oncoming region.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was primarily quiet with one period of unsettled conditions observed at mid latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled to active conditions are possible on 28 February and 01 March due to a small recurrent coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 26 Feb 077

Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 26 Feb 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 001/001

Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 005/005-005/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/20/15

Minor storm 05/10/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01