Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Feb 27 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A new region was numbered today as Region 856 (S08E69). This region has been the source of several low level B-class flares in the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet. Periods of unsettled conditions on 28 February are possible due to coronal hole affects.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 27 Feb 077

Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 27 Feb 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 003/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 005/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/15/15

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01