We don't need LNG in California
2.1.06   Tam Hunt, Director of Energy Programs, Community Environmental Council
 
 

January 28, 1969.

 

It was the largest oil spill our nation had seen up until that point – a catastrophic blowout from an oil platform off of Santa Barbara in southern California that spread an 800 square-mile oil slick along a thirty mile coastline. Many of us alive today did not experience the tides of dead seals, dolphins and birds; those who did say the spill stripped them of their innocence and left them with indelible memories of crimes against nature.

 

Although the players and stage have changed since 1969, the overall story has not. We are faced with the same fundamental problem now as we were then: our dependence on fossil fuels and the risks associated with that dependence.

 

Today, California is exploring an energy option that is no more necessary than drilling offshore (or for that matter, drilling in national forests or the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge). The latest debate centers around increasing California’s natural gas supplies by importing liquefied natural gas, or LNG. The problem is, we don’t need more natural gas in California because renewable energy and energy efficiency can meet future energy demands.

 

LNG is natural gas that has been cooled to the point where it becomes a liquid, making it easier to transport. In California, three LNG import terminals are seeking permits, all in Southern California. One is planned for a site about fourteen miles offshore from Oxnard, by BHP Billiton, an Australian energy company. Another has been proposed for Platform Grace, a retired oil rig off Ventura’s coast, by Houston-based Crystal Energy. But the most worrisome is Mitsubishi and Chevron’s proposed plant in the Port of Long Beach – much closer to urban areas than the first two.

 

Anytime you concentrate a fuel and confine it in a small space, concerns about safety and environmental protection arise. Even without those concerns, however, I would argue this: these LNG terminals simply aren’t necessary.

 

The Community Environmental Council, a Santa Barbara-based non-profit, has completed a rigorous examination of natural gas supply and demand and has concluded that there are better, more viable alternatives. Essentially, if California lives up to its own state laws mandating that we get more of our electricity from renewable resources and energy efficiency, we do not need these terminals.

 

Let’s look at some numbers. Right now we need about 6.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day to heat our homes and run our power plants. The California Energy Commission – the state’s official word in this area – projects that by 2016, that number will rise to 6.6 billion cubic feet. So we need to find an additional 400 million cubic feet per day in the next decade.

Before we start asking how we’re going to meet that need, let’s look at what we need the natural gas for. In California, about half of our power plants use natural gas to generate electricity – which can be generated by other energy sources, such as wind and solar power, and the rest is used for heating, cooking and industry. Natural gas for electricity generation is the only area expected to grow appreciably. So instead of trying to find a source for 400 million cubic feet per day of natural gas in the next ten years, let’s instead look for its equivalent: about 43,000 gigawatt hours of electricity per year.

 

California law requires that twenty percent of our electricity come from renewable resources by 2010, about 55,000 gigawatt hours per year – more than enough to meet the 43,000 gigawatt hours we’re looking for. (And the amount from renewables will probably be higher, as the state is considering advancing its goal so that thirty-three percent of all electricity would be produced by renewables by 2020.)

 

But that’s not all. We haven’t even yet asked whether we could reduce demand through conservation and more efficient technology. California’s investor-owned utilities recently received $2 billion in state funding to achieve $5 billion in energy efficiency savings, equivalent to more than 10,000 gigawatt hours a year through 2008. The state also has set an achievable goal of saving 23,000 gigawatt hours per year by 2013.

 

Under these existing mandates, we will more than offset future energy demand just by following the path that the state and the utilities already have in place. Even if you wanted to hedge your bets, there are sixteen new LNG import terminals already approved by regulators elsewhere in the U.S. and Baja California, as well as plans for gas pipelines from Canada and Alaska – all of which could funnel more natural gas our way if needed.

 

While natural gas is certainly cleaner and a preferable choice over oil or coal, let us not forget this it is still a non-renewable source of energy and a potentially explosive fuel. It is our belief that opting for LNG may divert attention from renewable energy and energy efficiency - the far more preferable alternatives. Let’s hope that policymakers at the local, state and federal levels give more thought to the necessity of constructing off-shore LNG terminals than they did the construction of oil rigs off our coast.

 

As we pass the anniversary of the January 28 oil spill, we should be asking ourselves: how long do we want to stay beholden to these dinosaur fuels?

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Readers Comments

Date Comment
James Hopf
2.3.06
I fully concur with the author that LNG imports are a bad idea, and that the increasing use of gas for power generation is the primary culprit. Importing large amounts of gas, primarily from the Middle East (even Russia, perhaps), just so we can use it in large, centralized, baseload power plants is impossible to justify.

Becoming highly dependent on these unstable regions for gas, just like we are for oil now, will greatly harm the US geopolitical position, as well as its balance of trade. It will make resource wars (e.g., Iraq) much more likely. Gas baseload plants also make no sense from a resource management point of view, in that they consume large amounts of a precious, limited resource, for a task that can easily be performed using several fuels/sources that are domestic, and much more abundant. California, with it's defacto "all gas" policy, has one of the most irresponsible energy policies in the nation.

All that said, if the author (and his ilk) wan't to be taken seriously, they have to show a little more willingness to compromise. One of the most irresponsible things that "environmentalists" have done, and continue to do, is spread the dishonest mantra that conservation and renewables alone can meet all of our future energy needs. No serious energy expert has ever believed this. As they contunue to beat this drum, w/o any hint of compromise, most people have stopped even listening to them, as they don't offer any real solutions. The fact is, if we limit our alternative options to conservation and renewables only, the use of gas for power generation in California WILL continue to increase, making LNG necessary.

Our primary goals should be to greatly reduce the use of gas for baseload power generation (for the reasons given above), and to greatly reduce the use of conventional (non-IGCC) coal, due to its unacceptable environmental and health costs. If we are to have any chance of doing this, we are going to need a much larger tent. Due to their intermittantcy, renewables can not do the job alone. Not even close. There seems to be a growing concensus (among those capable of compromise) that a combination of clean (IGCC) coal, nuclear, and renewables, as well as conservation, is going to be required to get the job done.

 

Edward A. Reid, Jr.
2.3.06
Unfortunately, the Commerce Clause of the US Constitution requires the rest of us to share the results of California's folly. California's combination of a very low conventional generating capacity reserve margin and its aggressive renewable portfolio standard means we will likely not have to wait long to view the results.

Full scale experiments, while very costly, are nevertheless extremely convincing.

 

Charles Petterson
2.3.06
The author claims

"In California, about half of our power plants use natural gas to generate electricity – which can be generated by other energy sources, such as wind and solar power, .... "

You can? Than why is it that you are NOT doing this? I have seen the same statement, or similar claims, for thirty years. Yet, the reality is that the folks in California can not find it in their interest to actually generate electricity in any significant amount, by these methods. None of these methods have provided enough capacity to accomodate the GROWTH of the power needs of the state, let alone REPLACE any thermal generation capacity.

I don't understand why this is. California, by their own admission, has the brightest, most beautiful, nost creative perople in the world. Yet, all they create is dreams, wishes, fantasies when it comes to generating power.

Go ahead . Protest to your hearts content. Keep offering up fanciful solutions. Such proposals serve you well.

chuck petterson persia

 

Len Gould
2.3.06
"California’s investor-owned utilities recently received $2 billion in state funding to achieve $5 billion in energy efficiency savings"

How much more will you need to "pay" the incumbents to achieve these goal of eliminating natural gas? From here it looks like a very lucrative flim-flam game they've got going with you. I'd suggest extreme caution in listening to any further proposals of this sort.

 

Len Gould
2.3.06
A question to the author, and/or anyone else: How might I access any web-available documentation of the methodology used to determine the amount of savings achieved by any specific utility-funded energy efficiency projects?

I note in Recommendation #5 of the ACEEE (American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy) report at http://www.aceee.org/conf/03ee/Kushler-7w.pdf the wording

"The traditional structure for the evaluation of utility energy efficiency programs should be maintained, including ......... (4) an open process, with full public access to all reports"

They then require a $13.00 fee to download any of their reports.

What I'm particularly interested in is "How to the program decision-makers avoid the liklyhood of design engineers designing new projects with an object of benefiting from this sort of program?" The ways to do so are endless, such as building a new manufacturing facility with all cheap inefficient electric motors to start, then having the efficiency program pay to replace those motors with new and costly high-efficiency motors while moving the nearly-new low-effic. motors onto phase 2 of the project. DO and repeat, while taxpayers foot the bill.

An interesting problem in economics and incentive.

 

Tam Hunt
2.6.06
James Hopf: I don't think you read the piece carefully enough. I state that renewables and energy efficiency can (under existing state mandates!) meet the additional natural gas demand projected by the state's energy agencies. I did not state that renewables and energy efficiency can replace all electricity generation.

I will, however, state now that I do indeed believe renewables and energy efficiency can replace all of our electricity generation in California - AND all of our natural gas needs (for non-electricity generation purposes) AND all of our transportation fuel needs. Indeed, this is our regional goal with our Fossil Free By '33 program (www.fossilfreeby33.org).

If you'd like extensive documentation, and real world examples, to back up this admittedly non-mainstream claim, I welcome further dialogue. You can email me directly at thunt@cecmail.org.

 

Tam Hunt
2.6.06
Len Gould: I have many documents on this issue, and can show you how to access these documents online for free. Email me at thunt@cecmail.org.

 

Tam Hunt
2.6.06
Len Gould: you question the wisdom of paying the utilities to achieve energy efficiency goals. Here's the rationale: the cost of creating "new generation" through energy efficiency and demand response programs is much cheaper than actually building new plants. Official state policy supports energy efficiency, demand response, and renewable electricity as the first three items in the state's loading order (the preferred sources of electricity). Accordingly, the state was willling to pay $2 billion (paid for with ratepayer funds to the tune of about $19 per year for each resident of California) to incentivize the utilities to invest seriously in these programs instead of building less cost-effective forms of new generation - which would then get passed on to the ratepayers as higher utility bills. It's a win win win situation and is eminently reasonable.

 

Tam Hunt
2.6.06
Charles Patterson: You raise a good point about earlier claims by renewables advocates. I wasn't around during the first round of interest in renewables, back in the 70s and 80s, but I can tell you this: the intervening 20 years has brought us light years closer to prime time. In California, fully 11% of our electricity comes from renewable sources (5% from geothermal being the single largest source of renewables), which is not insignificant. State law requires 20% by 2010. That's not insignificant. And the Governor is calling for 33% by 2020, which is most definitely not insignificant. Wind power is growing bey leaps and bounds, as is solar power (concentrating solar being the most promising for utility-scale generation). When ocean power technologies mature over the next decade, we expect to see a large amount of power from this area.

California is not already producing 33% renewable electricity b/c of many reasons, some of which are admittedly technological and economic in nature. These barriers have largely been overcome now and it's simply a matter of time before the political and industry barriers to a large increase in renewable generation takes us to the existing state goals, and hopefully much further.

 

Len Gould
2.6.06
Tam: Every possible efficiency saving possible through subsidy would also be available through intelligent nd constantly communicating TOU metering which also charged customers real prices according to market conditions on an hourly basis. California could replace all 10 million existing meters for perhaps $6 billion one-time cost. The meters would also be smart enough to use the premesis wiring system to control non-critical loads via powerline carrier signals, provide full AMR and TOU metering for electric, gas and water and communicate intelligently with larger customer's local energy management systems.

A far smarter use of limited resources (capital)

 

William Quapp
2.7.06
I believe that California does not need LNG but does need more solutions than the so-called "renewables". I agree with others that becoming dependent on imported sources of LNG is bad social policy. It is time we stop trading the lives of our military for energy supplies.

I am also opposed to the misguided use of natural gas for baseload electric power as are others commenting on this column. It is a thermodynamically wasteful use of fuel. In domestic heating or in chemical processes, 90% of the natural gas energy is extracted for beneficial use. In gas turbines, it is less than half of that value. This wasteful use of natural gas for baseload electric power is the reason that domestic heating users have seen a threefold increase in gas rates over the last 3 to 4 years! It is also the reason many chemical companies depending on natural gas for their feedstock have moved their manufacturing to other countries. Thus, the misguided use of natural gas has caused the heating bills to increase while jobs disappear! Logical? No.

I make note that "renewables" as discussed by Mr. Hunt have an interesting attribute. The solar renewable source operates about 50% of the time under the best of sunny conditions. The other half of the time it is dark. Maybe renewable is a synonym for "restartable" since solar power systems must be restarted on a daily basis. Note also that the land use to generate power from solar renewables will not be from land around Santa Barbara where Tam Hunt lives, it will be from eastern California deserts where smaller populations of people with less political power live. Is this NIMBY or what?

The other renewable energy he discusses, wind, also has interesting attributes. A couple of weeks ago, I drove the I10 interstate from the Ontario, CA airport to Palm Springs. Between these points is a mountain pass where the largest installation of wind machines I have ever seen is located. The fields of machines stretch for miles along the interstate and on mountain ridges within sight of the interstate. There must be several thousand machines. During this drive, the wind was blowing particularly aggressively from the east, enough so, that it was the subject of the local news every time I bothered to listen. Nevertheless, a large number of the wind machines sat motionless! Thus, better performance reliability is clearly needed.

Now to further observe, that since no one controls the wind, this renewable energy source is also not dependable. During hot summer days when air conditioning is badly needed in inland California communities, often the wind does not blow. So where does the power come from then? Natural gas turbines with the adverse social and economic effects illustrated above.

Mr. Hunt needs to face the reality that in this country, either everyone moves to Santa Barbara and similar coastal communities where the effects of winter and summer extremes are damped, or we go to more conventional and RELIABLE sources for generating electric power that do not depend on imported energy supplies. Jim Hopf made the right suggestions for satisfying this reliability need.

There is one renewable source of energy that California can use but many of the environmental extremists groups oppose it. That is waste. The municipal solid waste (trash) generated in California could be converted into electricity or hydrogen using gasification technologies. According to a California Integrated Waste Management Board 2004 report, about 40 million tons/year of waste are generated in the state. Most of this ends up in landfills where greenhouse gas generation and groundwater pollution are known outcomes. If this waste is processed in a gasification process, the gross power available is in the range of 42,000 gigawatt hours. So, the natural gas shortfall can be largely made up using gasification technologies to process the waste resource now being wasted. And, lest I not address the subject, this process can operated with minimal air emissions -- contrary to what the ill-informed anti-everything community generally claims.

So California does have indigenous energy options, it just needs to use the intellectual power of the state to implement those solutions instead of always advancing the NIMBY responses to energy options.