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NEW DELHI, India, February 15, 2006 (Refocus
Weekly)
Wind must install 200 times its current capacity
and solar PV must increase its capacity by 1,300 times, says the
head of the International Energy Agency.
World demand for energy will increase 52% by 2030 under the IEA’s
reference scenario, executive director Claude Mandil told a
sustainable development summit, but the growth for coal, oil and
natural gas is not sustainable. The world’s energy-related emissions
of CO2 will rise from 24 gigatonne to 38 Gt by 2030, but that level
could be reduced by 16% under the ‘alternative scenario’ that
increases penetration of renewables, nuclear and sequestration.
Under that scenario, improvements in end-use efficiency contribute
for half of the decrease in emissions, while renewables contribute
20%, ranging from 17% in transition economies to 21% in OECD
nations.
“To meet the energy demand and stabilize CO2 concentrations,
unprecedented technology changes must occur in this century,” he
says. The technology challenge is to avoid the annual emission of
1,000 megatonne of CO2 by replacing 300 conventional (500 MW) coal
power plants with zero-emission generating facilities, which means
that 1,000 sequestration plants must be installed to offset the
emissions from coal, or 140 nuclear reactors (1 GW each) must be
built in lieu of unsequestered coal plants.
Other options would require the wind sector to install 200 times the
current turbine capacity in the United States, or for the solar
industry to install 1,300 times the current U.S. solar generation in
lieu of unsequestered coal.
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