EIA ANALYSIS: Crude imports rebound after Calcasieu incident

EIA ANALYSIS: Crude imports rebound after Calcasieu incident

New York (Platts)--19Jul2006

US crude imports surged 1.082 million b/d to 10.701 million b/d on the
reopening of the Calcasieu Ship Channel after an oil spill, unwinding the
previous week's marked drop and contributing to the 200,000 barrel build in
commercial inventories, an analysis of the Energy Information Administration
data showed Wednesday.

The marked jump in crude imports was sufficient to offset the 410,000 b/d
rebound in inputs to 15.906 million b/d, particularly in PADDs I (Atlantic
Coast) and III (Gulf Coast). Crude inputs in PADD III climbed 256,000 b/d to
7.683 million b/d as three refineries in Louisiana affected by the Calcasieu
incident were able to increase runs after taking delivery of barrels and
ExxonMobil's 557,000 b/d Baytown, Texas refinery restarted its fluid catalytic
cracker. Crude throughputs in PADD I rose 47,000 b/d to 1.334 million b/d as
Sunoco's 330,000 b/d Philadelphia complex brought the crude distillation unit
back on line after a fire and the FCC at its 135,000 b/d Eagle Point refinery
was restarted.

East of the Rockies, what is considered the refining heartland of
America, crude stocks fell 800,000 barrels. More importantly, stocks at
Cushing, Oklahoma, the key pricing and delivery point for West Texas
Intermediate, edged down 500,000 barrels to 24.5 million barrels despite a
rather steep contango in the front of the crude futures curve. Normally, a
$1.50/barrel discount in the active front-month contract would provide
incentive to continue to add to storage facilities.

Inventory builds also occurred in gasoline and distillates despite a
still impressive rate of demand growth. Gasoline inventories rose 1.5 million
barrels to 214.2 million barrels, a counter seasonal occurrence, as production
recovered and despite another acceleration in demand growth. Gasoline
production rose 52,000 b/d to 9.228 million b/d while demand on a
week-over-week basis fell 52,000 b/d to 9.569 million b/d. However, demand on
a four-week moving average at 9.594 million b/d was up 1.9% year-over-year, a
advance of 0.2% week-over-week.

Distillate demand on a four-week moving average was 4.139 million b/d, or
4.8% higher than year-ago levels. On a weekly basis, distillate demand edged
down 22,000 b/d to 4.16 million b/d, a factor in the 1.2 million barrel build
in inventories.

The headline numbers were bearish, but the demand data remained a latent
bullish consideration.

--Linda Rafield, linda_rafield@platts.com

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