FERC chief warns of precarious New York summer

Washington (Platts)--12Jul2006


Power supplies for New York City and Long Island have grown tighter in
the last few weeks and are fragile in southwestern Connecticut as it faces the
high demand summer season, warned US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
Chairman Joseph Kelliher on Wednesday.

Speaking to the Energy and Resources Subcommittee of the House Government
Reform Committee, Kelliher also noted the potential for trouble in the highly
import-dependent markets of Southern California and Ontario.

The subcommittee, chaired by Darrell Issa, Republican-California, asked
Kelliher and transmission executives whether the US power grid trouble spots
could cope with a hot summer.

The answer from three grid executives--from the regional transmission
organizations of New York, New England and California--was yes, while the
answer from the FERC chairman was a less confident-sounding observation that
power supplies should be adequate for "normal" conditions, but could be
strained.

"During the last two weeks, two of four major transmission lines into New
York City from upstate New York have failed," Kelliher testified. The outages
have produced a net loss of 1,400 MW of capacity and mean that the city and
Long Island "will be tested during any periods of sustained hot weather," he
said.

One of the two 345-kV lines failed June 24 and the other failed four days
later. Consolidated Edison is working to restore both, but they are not
expected to return to service until sometime in August.

"Things are a little bit closer to the line," Kelliher said.

Southwestern Connecticut does not have adequate generation and
transmission capacity and is not expected to complete sufficient gtid upgrades
until late 2009, he said. "Until then, most things in southwestern Connecticut
have to operate," he said.

That Connecticut region is operating at or near its limit on import
transmission capacity, and the grid there cannot support additional
generation, he said.

"Overall, the fragility of the infrastructure into and within the
[southwestern Connecticut] region makes summer problems possible and maybe
even likely," Kelliher told the panel.

Regional grid officials stressed the positive aspects of their regions'
capacity developments. But Yakout Mansour, president and CEO of the California
Independent System Operator, did say that supplies in Southern California
would be tight this summer and were likely to be as tight or tighter during
the summer of 2007.

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