Hung presidential election throws Mexico into uncharted territory

Hung presidential election throws Mexico into uncharted territory

Mexico City (Platts)--3Jul2006

Mexico's presidential election on Sunday was too close to call and
officials will begin a vote-by-vote count on Wednesday to determine the
winner, the head of the federal electoral authority announced.
The authority had been expected to announce a winner late Sunday on the
basis of a quick count said to have a margin of error of only 0.3%, but the
authority's president, Luis Carlos Ugalde, said the difference between the
leading candidates was within that range.
Ugalde did not identify the leading candidates, but exit polls from
parallel Congressional elections pointed to a neck-and-neck race between
Felipe Calderon of the pro-business party, the PAN, and Andres Manuel Lopez
Obrador of the center-left PRD.
But a spokesman for Roberto Madrazo, candidate of the PRI, which ruled
Mexico for an unbroken seven decades of the last century, insisted: "This is
still a three-way race."
Mexico is now heading into uncharted territory. When the PRI ruled,
Mexicans knew a year ahead of the election -- when the PRI candidate was
announced -- who would win. The first truly free and fair elections, in 2000,
gave a comfortable victory to the PAN's Vicente Fox.
After a bitterly fought campaign, many analysts had feared a
post-electoral dispute that could threaten the nation's stability. Sunday
night, however, the first signs were encouraging. Both Calderon and Lopez
Obrador said they would respect the findings of the electoral authority, but
each claimed that he had won.
If calm continues to prevail, the future will give no cause for alarm,
even if it takes several days for the electoral authority to announce a
definitive result. The new president is not due to take power till December 1,
leaving plenty of time to form a Cabinet and a government program.
A close result is not encouraging, however, for those who back energy
reform. Calderon has been a firm proponent of giving the private sector a much
bigger role in energy, while Lopez Obrador is a defender of the state
monopolies in oil and electricity.
But even if Calderon turns out to be the winner, he will have a
relatively weak mandate with a minority in Congress -- not the best position
from which to push for reform.
On Sunday night, Calderon said he would try to form a coalition
government to push his reform program. Given the ferocious attacks that he
launched on his opponents during the campaign, however, that may be difficult.

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