IEA sees world refining capacity 11.7 million b/d higher in 2011

IEA sees world refining capacity 11.7 million b/d higher in 2011

London (Platts)--12Jul2006

World oil demand will rise by 1.9% or 1.6 million b/d to 86.4 million b/d
in 2007, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday, publishing its first
forecasts for the period to 2011. Demand is then forecast to rise to 88
million b/d in 2008, 89.8 million b/d in 2009, 91.7 million b/d in 2010 and
93.7 million b/d in 2011.
Despite the projected increases in world oil demand, however, the IEA
sees the call on OPEC crude falling from 28.8 million b/d in 2006 to 28.4
million b/d in 2007, and to 28.2 million b/d in 2008, before rising to 28.4
million b/d in 2009, 29.2 million b/d in 2010 and 30.2 million b/d in 2011.
Supply from non-OPEC producers, which tend not to regulate their output
to influence oil prices, is projected to grow from 51.3 million b/d in 2006 to
53 million b/d in 2007, 54.4 million b/d in 2008, 55.3 million b/d in 2009, 56
million b/d in 2010 and 56.7 million b/d in 2011. Biofuels from sources other
than Brazil and the US will account for 200,000 b/d of non-OPEC supply in 2006
and 300,000 b/d in 2007, before rising to an average annual 400,000 b/d
between 2008 and 2011.
OPEC natural gas liquids, which are counted as non-OPEC supply, are seen
rising from 4.7 million b/d in 2006 to 5 million b/d in 2007, 5.4 million b/d
in 2008, 6.1 million b/d in 2009, 6.5 million b/d in 2010 and 6.8 million b/d
in 2011.
China will account for some 23.6% of the 8.9 million b/d projected
increase in world oil demand over the next five years. Now the world's second
biggest consumer after the US, China's appetite for oil is forecast to grow by
2.1 million b/d between now and 2011, from 7 million b/d in 2006 to 9.1
million b/d. China's indigenous production will grow by just 100,000 b/d over
the period.
Middle East demand is also seen growing by 2.1 million b/d over the next
five years, from 6.5 million b/d in 2006 to 8.3 million b/d in 2011. North
American demand is seen growing by 1.8 million b/d over the five years, from
25.6 million b/d to 27.4 million b/d.
Latin American demand is forecast to grow by 600,000 b/d over the five
years and African demand by 400,000 b/d.
Smaller rises in demand are forecast from OECD Europe (200,000 b/d), the
former Soviet Union (200,000 b/d) and the Pacific region (100,000 b/d).
Former Soviet Union production is projected to grow by 2.4 million b/d
between now and 2011, from 12.1 million b/d in 2006 to 12.6 million b/d in
2007, 13 million b/d in 2008, 13.5 million b/d in 2009, 14 million b/d in 2010
and 14.5 million b/d in 2011.
African production is forecast to grow by 1.4 million b/d over the five
year period to reach 5.5 million b/d in 2011, while Latin American output is
seen growing by 1.2 million b/d to average 5.7 million b/d in 2011.
Refining capacity is expected to rise by 11.7 million b/d between 2006
and 2011, "concentrated at the tail end of the forecast period," the IEA said.
The IEA, launching its first Medium-Term Oil Market Report, said its
analysis "suggests that forward prices are too high and that the clear trend
towards an improved supply picture for crude and gasoline over the next five
years should help moderate crude forward prices." But it warned of "limiting
factors." Lower prices, for example, would spur more rapid demand growth and
could lead to lower investment levels. Furthermore, it said, "by 2011 capacity
growth is already seen slowing and demand will have strengthened," suggesting
that any lull in price pressures would be temporary without continued
investment and continued momentum to conserve energy.

For more news, request a free trial to Platts Oilgram News at
http://www.platts.com/Request%20More%20Information/

Please visit: www.platts.com

Their coverage of energy matters is extensive!!.