Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jul 02 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 898 (S06E14) still exhibits minor magnetic complexity, and produced a B9.3 flare at 02/0832Z. Region 897 (N06W23) continues to decay.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a small chance of a C-class flare from Region 898.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed has declined to near 380 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position late on 03 July. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods on 03 July. Occasional active to minor storm periods are expected on 04 and 05 July.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 02 Jul 087

Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 085/085/085

90 Day Mean 02 Jul 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 003/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 012/020-015/020-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

Active 30/40/40

Minor storm 10/15/15

Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 40/50/50

Minor storm 15/25/25

Major-severe storm 05/15/15