Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jul 06 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate with a single M-class flare (M2/2F) occurring at 0836Z accompanied by type II and type IV radio sweeps. The estimated shock speed of the type II radio sweep was 565 km/sec. The M2 was associated with a disappearing solar filament (extent of 11 degrees) and a partial halo CME (plane of sky speed of 824 km/sec) from the southwest limb. Region 898 (S08W41) features a large negative polarity leader spot with a fragment splitting off to the southwest. There is an incursion of positive polarity flux penetrating the main spot. Region 899 (S05E56) was quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an active interval from 05/2100 - 06/0300Z. The solar wind speed remains elevated due to a coronal hole high speed stream but has steadily declined during the past 24 hours. An enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons began around 1030 UTC in response to the M2 flare and CME. The maximum flux reached approximately 2 PFU. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for July 07 - 08. An increase to active, with a chance for periods of minor storm levels may occur sometime July 09 due to the arrival of the flank of today's CME.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul

Class M 20/20/20

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 06 Jul 085

Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 085/085/085

90 Day Mean 06 Jul 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 018/019

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 012/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 007/008-007/010-020/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/35

Minor storm 05/05/25

Major-severe storm 01/01/20

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/25/35

Minor storm 05/15/30

Major-severe storm 01/10/25