Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jul 08 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 898 (S06W69) produced a C2.3 flare at 07/2147 UTC. This region appears to be in decay; however, it still maintains a beta gamma delta magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to reach low levels with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 898.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled until midday on 09 July. Active to major storm periods are possible due to a glancing blow from the 06 July CME. On 10 July, conditions are expected to calm to unsettled to active levels. On 11 July, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul

Class M 15/15/10

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 08 Jul 077

Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 08 Jul 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 020/030-012/015-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

Active 35/25/20

Minor storm 25/15/10

Major-severe storm 20/05/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 35/30/20

Minor storm 30/15/10

Major-severe storm 25/05/01