Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jul 09 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 898 (S06W83) continues to be in decay. This region is due to rotate off the west limb on 10 July.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. At approximately 09/2045 UTC, an increase in total magnetic field, wind speed, temperature and density was observed at the ACE spacecraft. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 10 and 11 July. On 12 July, unsettled to active conditions are expected with the possibility of minor storm periods due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul

Class M 05/05/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 09 Jul 075

Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 09 Jul 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 002/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 005/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 003/008-005/008-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/30

Minor storm 05/05/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/35

Minor storm 10/10/25

Major-severe storm 01/01/15