Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jul 10 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A sudden impulse was observed at the boulder magnetometer at 09/2137 UTC with a 48 nT deviation. This resulted in the only active period between 09/2100 - 2400 UTC. Activity was the result of CME activity from 06 July.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 11 July. On 12 July, a recurrent coronal hole stream is expected to cause unsettled to active conditions with minor storm periods possible. On 13 July, conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul

Class M 05/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 10 Jul 073

Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 10 Jul 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 005/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 010/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 005/008-015/020-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/30/20

Minor storm 05/15/10

Major-severe storm 01/05/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/35/20

Minor storm 10/25/10

Major-severe storm 01/15/01