Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jul 11 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 899 (S06W18) underwent penumbral decay during the past 24 hours. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with isolated major storm conditions possible on 12 July due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 13 and 14 July as the coronal hole moves out of a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 11 Jul 071

Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 11 Jul 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 012/011

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 010/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 015/030-007/010-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

Active 35/20/20

Minor storm 15/05/05

Major-severe storm 10/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 45/20/20

Minor storm 20/10/10

Major-severe storm 10/05/05