Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jul 12 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Activity was due to a coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position late on 11 July. Solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated around 510 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 12 Jul 071

Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 12 Jul 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 005/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 012/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 007/010-007/010-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/15

Minor storm 10/10/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01