Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jul 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Activity was due to a coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position late on 11 July. Solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated around 510 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 071
Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 Jul 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 007/010-007/010-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01