Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jul 13 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The only spotted region on the disk, Region 899 (S05W41) has steadily decayed into an Axx alpha sunspot group. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 13 Jul 070

Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 13 Jul 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 009/012

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 006/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 006/008-005/005-003/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/10

Minor storm 05/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01