Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jul 19 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 900 (S04W25) produced two B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a B6 at 19/1441Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from Region 900.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 19 Jul 071

Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 19 Jul 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 002/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 002/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 003/005-003/005-003/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

Active 05/05/05

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01