Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jul 20 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 900 (S04W38) continues to steadily decay. A partial halo CME was first seen in LASCO imagery at 20/1354Z. EIT imagery showed a large filament eruption and post-eruption loops in the southeastern quadrant of the solar disk that began near 20/1236Z. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels. Due to the slow estimated velocity of today's CME, the potential associated effects most likely will occur just outside the forecast window.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 20 Jul 072

Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 20 Jul 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 002/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 003/005-003/005-003/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01