Supermarkets and Service Stations Now Competing for Grain
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July 17, 2006 |
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July 17, 2006 |
There are alternatives to using food-based fuels. For example, the equivalent of the 3 percent gain in automotive fuel supplies from ethanol could be achieved several times over -- and at a fraction of the cost -- simply by raising auto fuel efficiency standards by 20 percent.
Cars, not people, will claim most of the increase in world grain consumption this year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that world grain use will grow by 20 million tons in 2006. Of this, 14 million tons will be used to produce fuel for cars in the United States, leaving only 6 million tons to satisfy the world's growing food needs.
In agricultural terms, the world appetite for automotive fuel is insatiable.
The grain required to fill a 25-gallon SUV gas tank with ethanol will feed one
person for a year. The grain to fill the tank every two weeks over a year will
feed 26 people.
Investors are jumping on the highly profitable biofuel-bandwagon so fast that
hardly a day goes by without another ethanol distillery or biodiesel refinery
being announced somewhere in the world. The amount of corn used in U.S. ethanol
distilleries has tripled in five years, jumping from 18 million tons in 2001 to
an estimated 55 million tons from the 2006 crop.
In some U.S. Corn Belt states, ethanol distilleries are taking over the corn
supply. In Iowa, a staggering 55 ethanol plants are operating or have been
proposed. Iowa State University economist Bob Wisner observes that if all these
plants are built, they would use virtually all the corn grown in Iowa. In South
Dakota, a top-ten corn-growing state, ethanol distilleries are already claiming
over half of the corn harvest.
With so many distilleries being built, livestock and poultry producers fear
there may not be enough corn to produce meat, milk, and eggs. And since the
United States supplies 70 percent of world corn exports, corn-importing
countries are worried about their supply.
Since almost everything we eat can be converted into fuel for automobiles,
including wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, and sugarcane, the line between the food
and energy economies is disappearing. Historically, food processors and
livestock producers that converted these farm commodities into products for
supermarket shelves were the only buyers. Now there is another group, those
buying for the ethanol distilleries and biodiesel refineries that supply service
stations.
As the price of oil climbs, it becomes increasingly profitable to convert farm
commodities into automotive fuel, either ethanol or biodiesel. In effect, the
price of oil becomes the support price for food commodities. Whenever the food
value of a commodity drops below its fuel value, the market will convert it into
fuel.
Crop-based fuel production is now concentrated in Brazil, the United States, and
Western Europe. The United States and Brazil each produced over 4 billion
gallons (16 billion liters) of ethanol in 2005. While Brazil uses sugarcane as
the feedstock, U.S. distillers use grain -- mostly corn. The 55 million tons of
U.S. corn going into ethanol this year represent nearly one sixth of the
country's grain harvest but will supply only 3 percent of its automotive fuel.
(For additional data, see www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2006/Update55_data.htm.)
Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer and exporter, is now converting half
of its sugar harvest into fuel ethanol. With just 10 percent of the world's
sugar harvest going into ethanol, the price of sugar has doubled. Cheap sugar
may now be history.
In Europe the emphasis is on producing biodiesel. Last year the European Union (EU)
produced 1.6 billion gallons of biofuels. Of this, 858 million gallons were
biodiesel, produced from vegetable oil, mostly in Germany and France, and 718
million gallons were ethanol, most of it distilled from grain in France, Spain,
and Germany. Margarine manufacturers, struggling to compete with subsidized
biodiesel refineries, have asked the European Parliament for help.
In Asia, China and India are both building ethanol distilleries. In 2005, China
converted some 2 million tons of grain -- mostly corn, but also some wheat and
rice -- into ethanol. In India ethanol is produced largely from sugarcane.
Thailand is concentrating on ethanol from cassava, while Malaysia and Indonesia
are investing heavily in additional palm oil plantations and in new biodiesel
refineries. Within the last year or so, Malaysia has approved 32 biodiesel
refineries, but recently has suspended further licensing while it assesses the
adequacy of palm oil supplies.
The profitability of crop-based fuel production has created an investment
juggernaut. With a U.S. ethanol subsidy of 51 cents per gallon in effect until
2010, and with oil priced at $70 per barrel, distilling fuel alcohol from corn
promises huge profits for years to come.
In May 2005, the 100th U.S. ethanol distillery came on line. Seven of these
distilleries are being expanded. Another 34 or so are under construction and
scores more are in the planning stages. The soaring demand for crop-based fuel
is coming when world grain stocks are at the lowest level in 34 years and when
there are 76 million more people to feed each year.
The U.S. investment in biofuel production in response to runaway oil prices is
spiraling out of control, threatening to draw grain away from the production of
beef, pork, poultry, milk, and eggs. And, most seriously, the vast number of
distilleries in operation, under construction, and in the planning stages
threatens to reduce grain available for direct human consumption. Simply put,
the stage is being set for a head-on collision between the world's 800 million
affluent automobile owners and food consumers. Given the insatiable appetite of
cars for fuel, higher grain prices appear inevitable. The only question is when
food prices will rise and by how much. Indeed, in recent months, wheat and corn
prices have risen by one fifth.
For the 2 billion poorest people in the world, many of whom spend half or more
of their income on food, rising grain prices can quickly become life
threatening. The broader risk is that rising food prices could spread hunger and
generate political instability in low-income countries that import grain, such
as Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria, and Mexico. This instability could in turn disrupt
global economic progress. If ethanol distillery demand for grain continues its
explosive growth, driving grain prices to dangerous highs, the U.S. government
may have to intervene in the unfolding global conflict over food between
affluent motorists and low-income consumers.
There are alternatives to using food-based fuels. For example, the equivalent of
the 3 percent gain in automotive fuel supplies from ethanol could be achieved
several times over -- and at a fraction of the cost -- simply by raising auto
fuel efficiency standards by 20 percent. Investing in public transport could
reduce overall dependence on cars.
There are other fuel options as well. While there are no alternatives to food
for people, there is an alternative source of fuel for cars, one that involves
shifting to highly efficient gas-electric hybrid plug-ins. This would enable
motorists to do short-distance driving, such as the daily commute, with
electricity. If wind-rich countries such as the United States, China, and those
in Europe invest heavily in wind farms to feed cheap electricity into the grid,
cars could run primarily on wind energy, and at the gasoline equivalent of less
than $1 a gallon.
About the author...
Lester R. Brown, founder and President of Earth Policy Institute, is the author
of Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble, in
which he offers a vision for an environmentally sustainable economy. Brown,
whose principal research areas include food, population, water, climate change,
and renewable energy, helped pioneer the concept of environmentally sustainable
development. Widely sought as a speaker, and the recipient of many awards and
honorary degrees, Brown founded Worldwatch Institute in 1974, where he launched
the World Watch Papers, the Worldwatch/Norton books, the annual State of the
World report, World Watch, the annual Vital Signs, and the Institute's News
Briefs.
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