NEW YORK - August through October will average warmer-than-normal across the United States, especially from the Rockies westward, forecaster WSI Corp. said Monday in a seasonal three-month outlook.
The forecast, which extends what has been the warmest year on record so far, comes at the same time record-setting heat across the US West has led to power emergencies in California, including possible rolling blackouts, and after a week of heavy heat and record power demand across the nation.
According to WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford, "The summer pattern persists as we head into August, with the warmest temperatures remaining in the western US The eastern US will continue to see more variable temperatures from week to week, averaging out to be just slightly above-normal.
"By autumn, we expect cooling in the northern Plains that is typically associated with emerging positive PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and El Nino events," Crawford added, noting the two ocean fluctuations.
In August, the US Northeast, North Central, South Central, Northwest and Southwest were all expected to average above normal, with cooler-than-normal readings expected only in the Southeast, the forecaster said.
The warmer weather also increases the likelihood of extended heat events and could cause price spikes in the California power market. Natural gas demand will also likely increase in August under the warmer-than-normal forecast, with increased demand from the power sector.
"Although natural gas inventories are high, increased demand in the near term during August would be moderately bullish for prices," the forecast said.
In September, warmer-than-normal readings were expected in all six regions of the country, with the warmer outlook increasing the probability of extended summer weather.
In addition, WSI said an active tropical period could delay any bearish sentiment in the natural gas market that typically comes from high inventory levels at the end of the injection season.
"Any extended damage to natural gas infrastructure from hurricanes would naturally provide a bullish underpinning to natural gas prices ... while power prices in the Northeast and California load centers should be moderate during September as temperatures are expected to be only slightly warmer than normal."
In October, warmer-than-normal readings were again expected everywhere except the North Central and Northwest US where cooler-than normal weather was forecast.
But warmer temperatures in October were not likely to have a significant impact on energy prices due to shoulder-period demand for both power and gas. Seasonal maintenance at power plants and nuclear plant refueling was likely to have a much greater impact on prices at that time of year than temperature variations, WSI said.
The US National Weather Service last week issued its 90-day outlook for August, September and October, also calling for warmer-than-normal conditions over most of the US west of the Mississippi River and in New England and the Florida Peninsula.
REUTERS NEWS SERVICE
