Climate change will impact plant efficiency, demand: UK report

London (Platts)--5Jun2006

Climate change will make the UK less efficient at producing power while
also negatively effecting the energy demand profile, according to a report
from the UK's Met Office, in collaboration with E.ON UK, EDF Energy and the
National Grid, presented Monday.
The "scoping study" was created using climate predictions created by the
Met Office's Hadley Centre, and provides some initial indications on how
climate change could impact electricity generation, distribution and
transmission, supply and demand in the UK up to 2050. It also identifies areas
requiring further research which will help guide any wider studies in the
future.
The study found that "the energy industry is highly sensitive to changes
in climate and that most of the industry's activities could be affected - oil
and gas extraction; power generation; electricity and gas distribution;
electricity transmission; and energy supply and demand."
Speaking at the presentation of the report's findings Monday, Energy
Minister Malcolm Wicks said that while it was right to talk about mitigating
climate change, "the world has no choice but to start planning for the
inevitability of some climate change." He added "It is vital for the future of
our society and economy that the energy sector is able to adapt to the effects
of climate change and can continue to provide the power we need to maintain
our way of life."
Warmer weather reduces the efficiency of gas turbines, Met Office
spokesman Barry Gromett said, so with warmer summers from climate change, "if
we are going to use CCGT, we will have to increase the amount of plant. "On
the nuclear side, climate change could impact siting, since many of the UK's
nuclear plants are located on the coast. If sea levels rise, several of these
plants could be at risk.
"We are going to have to look at storm surge protection," Gromett said,
"and if we plan new nuclear stations, we will have to take into account that
the old sites may not be suitable for the future. In particular, Sizewell is
perhaps most likely to be the worst affected by sea level rises."
The report also looked at the changing demand profile in the UK,
resulting from warmer summers and milder winters. "You look at that and think
it might be a good thing," Gromett said, "but currently lots of power
companies use the summer low-demand period for maintenance, so you would have
to look at that."
Climate change could also seriously impede power station
cooling systems, due to less rain and falling river levels. Similar factors
would also reduce the capacity of distribution assets "as ambient temperatures
rise and soil moisture reduces in some regions/season," according to the
report.
Gromett said that in addition to identifying "strands of impact" for the
UK's energy industry, the study also "identified things to work at in the
future."
The report recommends the formation of a new consortium of industry to
further research these areas, including "more thorough assessment of regional
climate change" and "a quantitative assessment of the impacts identified in
the scoping study." This should lead to a presentation of options that
"industry/government would need to consider when assessing investment
policy/national policy."
E.ON UK chief executive Paul Golby said that the study "offers a unique
window on the future." The combination of resources from industry and the Met
Office "concentrates experience, knowledge and resources through which we can
begin the process of assessing the impacts of climate change and how we need
to respond to ensure viable, long-term energy supplies," he said.
EDF Energy's chief executive Vincent de Rivaz added that the study
"doesn't pretend to answer all the questions" but that it does point to the
issues that will be important for the energy industry, including "the areas we
will need to address to make sure we keep the lights on."

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