|
WASHINGTON, DC, US, June 28, 2006 (Refocus
Weekly)
The market share of renewable energies around the
world will increase by only one percentage point over the next
quarter-century, according to U.S. data.
The global consumption of marketed energy will grow by 71%
between 2003 and 2030 under the reference case projection of the
latest International Energy Outlook from the Energy Information
Administration. The strongest growth will be in developing
countries, especially China and India, where “robust economic growth
drives the increase in energy use.”
Fossil fuels will continue to supply much of the world’s energy, and
oil will remain the dominant source as consumption of marketed
energy increases by an average of 2% per year to 2030. In some
non-members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation &
Development (OECD), growth in energy demand will be double as annual
economic activity (GDP) expands 5%, compared with 2.6% in OECD
economies.
“Rising fossil fuel prices also allow renewable energy sources to
compete economically in the electric power sector,” it explains.
“Consumption of hydroelectricity and other grid-connected renewable
energy sources expands by 2.4% per year, approximately the same as
the rates of growth projected for natural gas and coal, and the
renewable energy share of the world’s total energy consumption
increases from 8% in 2003 to 9% in 2030.”
Much of the anticipated growth in green power results from the
completion of large hydroelectric facilities in non-OECD nations,
especially in Asia, “where the need to expand electricity production
with associated dams and reservoirs often outweighs concerns about
environmental impacts and the relocation of populations,” it
explains. China, India and Laos are constructing new large-scale
hydro facilities and, with the exception of the 7,500 MW Southeast
Anatolia hydro station in Turkey, “most hydroelectric resources in
the OECD nations already have been developed or lie far from
population centers. As a result, non-hydroelectric marketed
renewables, such as wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass, are
expected to account for most of the growth in OECD renewable energy
use, given government programs and policies to encourage their
expansion.”
Net electricity consumption around the world doubles in the
reference case, from 14,781 billion kWh in 2003 to 21,699 b-kWh in
2015 and 30,116 b-kWh in 2030. Most growth in power demand occurs in
non-OECD nations, which will average 3.9% per year to 2030, compared
with 1.5% in OECD nations.
Increases are projected for all primary energy sources in
generation, with coal and natural gas remaining the most important
fuels and accounting for two-thirds of the total increase in energy
used to generate electricity. Consumption of nuclear power increases
from 2,523 b-kWh in 2003 to 3,299 b-kWh in 2030 under the reference
case, as “higher fossil fuel prices and concerns about security of
energy supplies are expected to improve prospects for nuclear power
capacity over the projection period, and many countries are expected
to build new nuclear power plants.”
Global nuclear capacity rises from 361 GW in 2003 to 438 GW in 2030,
with “significant declines in capacity projected only for Europe,
where several countries have either plans or mandates to phase out
nuclear power, or where old reactors are expected to be retired and
not replaced.”
Trends in end-use sector energy consumption vary widely and, on a
global basis, energy demand in the industrial sector will grow by
2.4% per year and 1.7% in the residential buildings sector and 1.8%
in commercial buildings. The slowest growth in energy demand is
projected for transportation, at 1.4% per year. The 2005 EIA
forecast had predicted transportation energy use would grow at the
same rate as industrial and faster than buildings, but higher world
oil prices are largely responsible for the slower growth in
transportation demand.
Carbon dioxide emissions will continue to increase steadily around
the world, from 25,000 metric tonne in 2003 to 33,700 Mt in 2015 and
43,700 Mt in 2030. Three-quarters of this projected increase results
from fossil fuel consumption in non-OECD countries.
EIA is the statistical and analytical agency of the U.S. Department
of Energy.
Click here for more info...
Visit http://www.sparksdata.co.uk/refocus/
for your international energy focus!!
Refocus © Copyright 2005, Elsevier
Ltd, All rights reserved.
|
