Alas, we can’t really take credit for Sweden’s aspirations – great ideas often come at about the same time to different people. It’s not hard in this case to discern what prompted our concerns about fossil fuels around the same time policymakers in Sweden became concerned enough to set hugely ambitious national goals.

Here are the highlights: climate change concerns are growing ever more urgent as more and more evidence comes to light indicating that our climate may be changing even faster than previously predicted.

“Peak oil” – the point at which global oil production reaches its maximum – may have already arrived, and if it’s not already here, it’s not far off. A recent report from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers states: “We are at or near a peak in global oil production.” There is growing evidence that the large increase in oil prices (and gas prices) may be related to peak oil concerns as demand outpaces supply.

Air pollution continues to dog our cities and the major culprit is the burning of fossil fuels like oil and gas. Los Angeles recently re-gained the title for most polluted city (Houston, Texas, took it from us for a few years), so with California’s population continuing to grow, air pollution concerns will only get worse unless we seriously change our fuel mix and transportation systems.

Last, but not least, global geopolitics has always been at least in part motivated by energy concerns. Today, the Great Game is being overtly played over oil and other energy supplies – petro-diplomacy is the name of the game now as the United States, India, Japan, China and Europe compete for the remaining resources. Think of it as chess with offshore oil rigs as rooks and LNG tankers as pawns.

Sweden, a country of just nine million (compared to California's 36 million) and a land mass slightly larger than California, currently generates 34 percent of its total energy demand (including electricity, natural gas and transportation fuels) from renewables – primarily biomass, hydropower and wind power. Of the country’s remaining energy demand, about 40 percent comes from oil, 14 percent from nuclear power, and the rest from various sources, including natural gas.

A large new development in the city of Malmo, in southern Sweden, is already fossil free. The “Bo01” area of Malmo obtains all its energy needs from locally available renewable energy sources such as wind, biomass, solar and geothermal power.

Sweden plans to grow its biofuels, biomass and wind industries to meet its goal of eliminating its reliance on oil, at the same time as it gradually shuts down its nuclear power plants in response to a popular referendum. Because of the far north location, solar power will probably not be a large part of the power mix.

Will Sweden reach its goal? It takes a long time for major changes in national energy policies, but Sweden could certainly get off oil by 2020 if its current popular and political will continues, especially if oil prices continue their upward march.

Here in Santa Barbara, we’ve given ourselves 27 years to get off fossil fuels, but it could be done much sooner if we all get behind this goal. We are indeed blessed with amazing natural resources here in our county: solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, ocean power, biofuels and great opportunities to increase the efficiency with which we use energy. With oil and natural gas prices skyrocketing, it is now even clearer that renewable energy isn’t “just” an environmental concern any more – it’s a matter of economics. Wind power is already cheaper than fossil fuel energy in some places around the country. Ethanol and biodiesel can be cheaper than gasoline. And energy efficiency projects are generally the lowest cost “source” of new energy.

We have indeed reached the point that we can pursue renewable energy and energy efficiency based purely on economic motivations. As prices for fossil fuels and nuclear power continue their upward march, renewables will only become more and more economically favorable. Yes, we can have our cake and eat it too by doing good for the environment while also doing well for our regional economy.

For an informative rebuttal from many folks go to:  http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_display.cfm?a_id=1271

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