by Siddharth Srivastava
04-05-06
In its quest for energy, New Delhi is in danger
of falling between two stools in its dealings with the US and Iran. Ratification
of the India-US nuclear deal over civilian nuclear energy cooperation has hit
major roadblocks in Congress, with sharp differences emerging over various
definitions of the deal.
Tehran, on the other hand, has announced that it wants to renegotiate a $ 22 bn
gas deal signed last year. Although Tehran says that this move has no connection
with India siding against Iran over its nuclear program, few in Delhi believe
that there is no connection, and they are concerned that Tehran's irritation
with India will manifest itself in future interactions.
Iranian Deputy Oil Minister Mohammed Hadi Nejad Hosseinian said in New Delhi
that Tehran wanted to reopen the commercial agreement for a 5 mm ton liquefied
natural gas (LNG) deal signed last year between Indian Oil Corporation and the
National Iranian Gas Exporting Company. Indian Oil Minister MurliDeora said the
dispute was over price.
"Because it [LNG deal] is not ratified [by the Iranian government], we think we
don't have any obligation, but the Indian side thinks it is approved and is in
effect. So we have a dispute," Hosseinian said.
India is not too happy.
"Oil prices have shot up, so they want a review. But we do not want to revise
it. We want the gas at the price that was mentioned in the contract," Deora
said. New Delhi has also begun simultaneous negotiations with Australia and
Qatar for LNG due to Iran's isolation by the global community.
Another move that India does not appreciate is the decision by Iran and Pakistan
to work on a gas pipeline project together if India fails to join them.
Following talks with Iranian officials, Ahmed Waqar, permanent secretary at
Pakistan's Petroleum Ministry, was quoted as saying that Pakistan and Iran had
agreed to go ahead with the pipeline regardless of the outcome of the trilateral
$ 7 bn India-Pakistan-Iran (IPI) project.
In Delhi, Hosseinian said that India had to agree on the pipeline by July.
Failing that, Tehran would proceed with exports to Pakistan.
"India has not been edged out of pipeline. We continue to engage in discussions
leading to a tri-nation ministerial meeting next month," Hosseinian said after
meeting Deora.
Earlier, the oil ministers of Iran, Pakistan and India said at an international
energy forum in Doha that they were very near a final agreement on the pipeline,
in defiance of US opposition. Iranian Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri said he expected
the final deal to be signed in Tehran in June.
Iran's toughening stance comes at a time when more "wrinkles" have appeared
on the nuclear deal. The US has insisted that India adhere to a moratorium on
testing atomic weapons (which India has rejected) as part of the deal that would
give India access to US and foreign nuclear technology for the first time in
three decades.
The Bush administration has said that Delhi must be prepared to accept
"amendments" to the agreement which are within the "spirit" of the accord
announced in March.
Sounding a tough note, Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran, recently back in India
after canvassing for the deal in Washington, said that it was "delicately
balanced", and any substantial changes or revisions to it were unacceptable to
India. Saran said that Delhi hoped Congress would implement the pact along the
agreed parameters.
Meanwhile, US pressure on New Delhi to stay away from Iran continues. Earlier,
in trying to sell the India-US nuclear deal, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
said the Bush administration could not guarantee that if the deal was approved
by Congress, the Iran-India gas pipeline would not be built.
However, on a more stringent note, Washington has also reiterated that it is
against any such deals with Iran. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman said at Doha that
conducting business with Iran encouraged its nuclear ambitions, when asked about
the IPI.
"Doing business with Iran, it seems to me, at a certain levelencourages this
[Iran's nuclear program]," he said.
The US has also outlined an ambitious project to tap the energy-rich
ex-Soviet republics of Central Asia. The plan would develop a regional power
grid from Kazakhstan to India to feed India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and help
integrate the economies of Central and South Asia, circumventing Iran and
reducing the reliance on pipelines through Russia.
Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher presented the plan and said that
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan were rapidly becoming top energy producers.
Delhi, meantime, has also been trying to strike a conciliatory note towards
Tehran, at a time when assembly elections are being held in four states -- West
Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry -- with Muslims are a sizeable voting
block. This is also being seen as an attempt to send a political message to the
Muslim population, which is believed to be upset with New Delhi's pro-US,
anti-Iran stance.
Earlier, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had a telephone conversation with Iranian
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and discussed energy cooperation and the need to
push forward the IPI pipeline.
Recently, the minister of state for external affairs said that India would go
ahead with the pipeline project with Pakistan. It was lost on nobody that the
announcement was made at Thiruvanthapuram in Kerala state, where the elections
are being held.
"India and Iran enjoy traditionally friendly relations... We intend to further
strengthen and expand our multi-faceted ties," the minister said.
Some experts say that India may actually not be interested in the pipeline.
According to an analysis by Stratfor, "India and Iran have talked about the
natural gas pipeline deal for more than a decade. The deal has not progressed
primarily because it has been regularly used as a political tool by New Delhi,
Tehran, Islamabad and Washington. For India, running a natural gas pipeline
through Pakistan does not make sense from a national security perspective.
Distancing New Delhi from Tehran's orbit is one of Washington's major
objectives. New Delhi's motives for the current announcement of progress on the
deal are largely attributable to assembly elections."
Siddharth Srivastava is a New Delhi-based journalist.
Source: Asia Times Online