01-01-06
Oil is an ace up Iran's sleeve. Any sign of turbulence in the fourth largest
oil producer of OPEC will disturb the international crude market and thus put
the West on jitters.
Oil is also Iran's Achilles' heel. The big refined oil importer, as well as a
big crude exporter, will face severe challenges if economic sanctions cut off
gasoline imports. That underlies Iran's eagerness for nuclear power development.
The high international crude prices hovering around $ 70 per barrel this year
has benefited Iran greatly, making its petrodollar special fund hitting a record
of $ 24 bn. It is a long-held dream of the Iranian government to accelerate its
economy and build an economic power in the Middle East. But the US blockade and
restrain have denied its access to foreign investment and advanced technologies.
In this case, rising oil prices on the world market inflate Iran's forex holding
and heats up the domestic investment. The capital shortfall has been eased in
this way.
In the meantime, Iran is also a big refined oil importer with 40 % of its 75
mm litre gasoline consumption per day coming from other countries.
For the Iranian people, especially the younger generation born after the Islamic
Revolution in 1979, cars are part of their life and transportation basically
depends on trucks. Auto possession is still increasing there, leading to much
reliance on imported gasoline.
An official with the National Iranian Oil Company also recognized that it was
a paradox in Iran's economy with oil being both its strongest and weakest point.
Western countries apparently also have realized that. An article titled “How to
stop Iran without firing a shot on the Wall Street Journal” by Bret Stephens
proposed four initiatives beyond military actions to deal with Iran, including
"a gas quarantine".
In European Union's package of addressing the Iran nuclear issue, embargo on
refined oil is also one of the possible punitive measures in the case of Iran's
rejection to the package.
Source: People's Daily Online