OPEC shaves forecast of 2006 oil demand growth to 1.36 mil b/d

London (Platts)--19Jun2006


OPEC on Monday shaved its forecast of world oil demand growth in 2006 to
1.36 million b/d from the 1.38 million b/d previously forecast.
The Monthly Oil Market report published by OPEC's Vienna secretariat said
that while the biggest share of increased world oil demand growth was mainly
in the developing countries, "signs indicate an easing in oil demand, partly
due to the high prices."
The cartel also trimmed its forecast of non-OPEC output in 2006 by 80,000
b/d to 51.4 million b/d from 51.48 million b/d. It said the adjustment
reflected lower-than-expected production growth from Canada, Australia, Angola
and Mauritania "due to unexpected technical issues affecting the start-up or
production of some key projects." These adjustments, however, were partly
offset by upward revisions in other countries, "particularly Argentina, Russia
and Kazakhstan."
OPEC raised its forecast of the "call" on its own crude this year by
110,000 b/d to 28.73 million b/d from 28.62 million b/d. Using media
"secondary sources," it estimated its own 11-member crude output in May at
29.479 million b/d, down 105,000 b/d from April. Excluding Iraq, it estimated
production from the ten members with quotas at 27.555 million b/d, down 70,000
b/d from the estimated April figure of 27.625 million b/d and 445,000 b/d
below the notional 28 million b/d ceiling.
Saudi production was estimated at 9.161 million b/d in May, down from
9.194 million b/d in April, while Iraqi production was pegged at 1.924 million
b/d, down from 1.96 million b/d in April.

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