Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 01 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed has been steadily increasing over the past 24 hours, rising from approximately 400 km/s to approximately 550 km/s, indicating the onset of the coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 02 - 03 June with possible minor storm periods due to the coronal hole high speed stream.

Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 04 June.

III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 01 Jun 077

Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 075/080/080

90 Day Mean 01 Jun 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 004/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 008/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 015/020-015/020-005/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/25/10

Minor storm 15/15/01

Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 40/40/20

Minor storm 20/20/15

Major-severe storm 10/10/05