Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 05 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 892

(S08E53) continues in a growth phase and now exhibits an EKI beta-gamma sunspot group with a possible delta configuration in the leader spots. The overlying plage field has also intensified, but flare activity was limited to isolated B-class events.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

Region 892 has potential for C-class activity. An isolated M-class flare is possible.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 06 June. A large recurrent coronal hole is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on

07 June. Expect active levels with occasional minor storm periods on

07 and 08 June.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun

Class M 10/10/10

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 05 Jun 078

Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 05 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 001/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 005/008-020/020-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/40/35

Minor storm 01/15/10

Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/50/45

Minor storm 05/20/15

Major-severe storm 01/10/05