Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 07 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Activity consisted of several B-class flares. Region 892 (S07E29) has grown in size and magnetic complexity and developed a weak delta configuration.

Region 893 (S01E52) has also grown in size during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

There is a good chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 892. There is a slight chance also for an isolated M-class flare from this region.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly active the past 24 hours due to a coronal hole high speed stream. The solar wind velocity remains elevated at 550 - 650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field is forecast to be active for the next 24 - 36 hours (08 - 09/1200Z June) due to persistence of the high speed stream. Activity levels are expected to decline to quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast interval (09/1200Z - 10 June).

III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun

Class M 15/15/15

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 07 Jun 083

Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 086/089/090

90 Day Mean 07 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 015/023

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 021/025

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 020/025-015/020-007/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 35/35/25

Minor storm 20/15/10

Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 40/30/25

Minor storm 25/20/15

Major-severe storm 10/10/05