Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 08 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Activity consisted of several B-class flares. Region 892 (S06E15) is now classified as beta gamma. The region is about the same size as yesterday and does not appear to be growing at this time. Region 893 (S02E37) is growing slowly but appears to be stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with a period of minor storming between 08/0300Z and 08/0900Z due to a coronal hole high speed stream. The solar wind velocity remains elevated at 550 - 650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field is forecast to be unsettled to active for the next 12 - 24 hours (09/1200Z -

09/2400Z) due to persistence of the high speed stream. Activity levels are expected to decline to quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast interval (10 - 11 June).

III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun

Class M 10/10/10

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 08 Jun 080

Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 08 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 018/024

Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 022/025

Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 015/020-007/015-007/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 40/25/25

Minor storm 20/10/10

Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 40/25/25

Minor storm 25/10/10

Major-severe storm 05/05/05