Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 11 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 892

(S07W27) was limited to minor B-class flare activity with slow decay in the magnetic gamma structure which was evident today. A simply structured Hsx alpha group emerged during the period and is newly numbered Region 894 (S07E36).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 11 Jun 074

Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 11 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 007/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 006/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 005/008-005/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/20

Minor storm 01/01/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01