Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 12 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 892 (S07W40) continues to show steady decay. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be possible on 16 June due to a small recurrent coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 12 Jun 074

Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 12 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 004/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 005/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 005/008-008/008-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/20/25

Minor storm 01/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/25

Minor storm 05/05/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/05