Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 13 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be possible late on 14 June and into 15 June as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 13 Jun 077

Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 13 Jun 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 002/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 003/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 008/008-010/012-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/25/15

Minor storm 05/05/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/25/25

Minor storm 05/10/05

Major-severe storm 01/05/01