Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 14 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 892 (S07W70) produced low level B-class flares early in the period.

Other numbered regions have been quiescent during the past 24 hours.

No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed increased from 400 km/sec to a maximum of 550 km/sec late in the period, this coinciding with an anticipated recurrent coronal hole.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be possible on 15 June due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 14 Jun 075

Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 14 Jun 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 002/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 010/012-005/010-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/15/15

Minor storm 05/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/20

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 05/01/01