Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 15 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 892 (S06W85) produced two C-class flares; a C2.6 at 15/0431 UTC and a C1.4 at 15/0823 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm conditions. Major storm periods were observed between 15/0600 - 0900 UTC and 15/0900 - 1200 UTC. Activity was due to the effects from a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible on 16 June. On 17 and 18 June, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 15 Jun 076

Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 075/075/080

90 Day Mean 15 Jun 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 006/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 020/025

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 010/015-005/008-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/15/15

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/20/20

Minor storm 15/10/10

Major-severe storm 05/01/01