Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 16 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 892 (S06, L=290) produced a C2.8 at 16/1423 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately 600 km/s to 520 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 16 Jun 075

Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 075/080/080

90 Day Mean 16 Jun 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 017/028

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 010/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 005/008-005/008-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01