Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 18 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Two CME's were observed on LASCO imagery. The first was off the southwest limb at 18/0030 UTC while the second was off the northeast limb at 18/0830 UTC. Both CME's appeared to be backsided events.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. An isolated active period was observed on Boulder magnetometer between 18/0600 - 0900 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 18 Jun 073

Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 18 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 007/010

Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 005/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 005/008-003/005-003/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/15/15

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01