Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 19 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit slightly exceeded high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be normal to moderate.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 19 Jun 073

Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 19 Jun 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 006/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 004/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/25

Minor storm 15/15/15

Major-severe storm 05/05/05