Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 20 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be moderate to high.

III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 20 Jun 073

Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 20 Jun 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 004/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 004/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 005/005-005/007-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 05/05/05

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01