Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 25 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 897 (N06E75) produced six B-class flares in the last 24 hours. The largest was a B4 at 25/0505Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from Region 897.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first two days (26-27 June). A recurrent coronal hole is expected to rotate into geoeffective position on 28 June. Unsettled to active conditions, with possible minor storm periods, are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 25 Jun 074

Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 25 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 002/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 005/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 007/008-005/008-012/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/25

Minor storm 05/05/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/30

Minor storm 05/05/20

Major-severe storm 01/01/10