Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 26 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 897 (N06E57) produced two B1 flares during the past 24 hours. A Bright Surge on the Limb (N03E90), reaching a height of .18 solar radius at 26/0549Z, was reported by the Learmonth Solar Observatory.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from Region 897.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 27 June. A recurrent coronal hole is expected to rotate into geoeffective position on 28 Jun.

Unsettled to active conditions are expected for 28-29 June, with minor storm periods possible on 28 June.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 26 Jun 076

Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 078/078/078

90 Day Mean 26 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 003/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 005/006-012/020-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/25/20

Minor storm 05/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/05/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/30/25

Minor storm 05/20/15

Major-severe storm 01/10/05