Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 27 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 897 (N06E44) has developed in complexity and is now a Cai beta-gamma group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 897 may produce C-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 28 - 29 June due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Expect mostly quiet conditions on 30 June.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun

Class M 10/10/10

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 27 Jun 079

Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 27 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 001/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 003/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 012/020-010/015-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/20/15

Minor storm 10/10/01

Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/25/25

Minor storm 20/15/10

Major-severe storm 10/05/01