Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 28 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered region 898 (S06E66) produced a B5 flare at 28/1932 UTC. Region 897 (N05E29) has grown to approximately 110 millionths.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Over the past 24 hours, solar wind speed increased to approximately 575 km/s due to the coronal hole high speed stream while Bz varied between +/- 10 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 29 June, with mostly quiet conditions expected on 30 June to 01 July.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 28 Jun 084

Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 085/085/085

90 Day Mean 28 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 007/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 014/020

Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 010/015-005/010-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/10/10

Minor storm 10/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/20

Minor storm 15/10/10

Major-severe storm 05/01/01