Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Jun 29 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 897 (N06E15) and 898 (S05E54) have produced several B-class flares over the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed is slowly decreasing from a maximum of approximately 600 km/s to approximately 530 km/s at time of issue.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (30 June -02 July).

III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 29 Jun 086

Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 085/090/090

90 Day Mean 29 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 012/018

Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 008/009

Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 005/010-005/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/20/10

Minor storm 10/10/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01