The winter scare is over. But a summer storm could tip
the nation's natural gas balance. The concern is over
whether a devastating hurricane such as the one
experienced last summer could happen again. Right now,
there's enough natural gas in the supply chain to meet
expected demand. But, a heated summer compounded by
natural disasters could put a crimp in the system that
could result in exacerbated prices.
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Ken Silverstein
EnergyBiz Insider
Editor-in-Chief |
With price pressures always constant, an added emphasis
has been placed on underground storage. The overall
uncertainty may mean that utilities will want to get gas
into the ground in the coming months to ensure
reliability.
National policy-makers understand the importance of
underground natural gas storage, which can supply as much
as 30 percent of our consumption during peak demand. It
has become even more paramount as the demand for gas rises
and it is used not just for home heating in the winter but
also to produce the electricity that powers air
conditioners in the summer. That's why the Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission has been progressive when it comes
to approving new storage facilities.
Chevron Global Gas filed last November with the FERC an
application to build two storage caverns in Colorado. It
says the facilities would be initially operational by 2008
and fully operational by 2010. "Natural gas represents one
of the energy industry's greatest growth opportunities,"
says John Gass, president of Chevron Global Gas. "Natural
gas is expected to outpace demand for crude oil over the
next two decades and is fast becoming the fuel of choice
for homes and industry."
Last fall, of course, the price of natural gas rose to
as high as $14 per million BTUs when supplies from the
Gulf of Mexico were cut off in the wake of Hurricane
Katrina. Today, the energy picture as it relates to
natural gas looks fine. The futures price for natural gas
to be delivered in June is moderate at $6 per million BTU
while the Energy Information Administration reports more
than 2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in storage.
That's 53 percent more than the five-year average for this
time of year.
The value of storage tends to rise when demand for
natural gas outstrips supplies. In the early 1990s when
natural gas became the fuel of choice, demand sharply rose
as most planned generators were to be fired with the fuel
source. But, production remained flat as new wells were
harder to find while restrictions remained on a lot of
potential spots that were under federal control.
Altogether, the FERC has approved an increasing number
of natural storage facilities to protect against potential
shortages. Meantime, a study performed by the National
Petroleum Council indicates that there may be a need in
North America for 700 billion cubic feet (bcf) of new
storage between now and 2025 while the INGAA Foundation
says that 651 bcf of new storage may be needed in the
United States and Canada by 2020.
"The development of new storage infrastructure could
cost-effectively help customers maintain service
reliability and manage commodity price volatility," says a
FERC report.
Valuable Assets
Companies have traditionally injected gas in the summer
when prices are low and withdrawn it in the winter when
prices are high using so-called depleted reservoirs that
can be cycled once a year. But now, newer facilities
utilizing so-called salt caverns can be turned over 4 to
12 times a year to better serve customers.
Without a doubt, the traditional need for storage --
summer deposits and winter withdrawals -- is still
prevalent and necessary. Local distribution companies that
must deliver gas to customers are the biggest users of
such services.
The chief reason is that such usage serves as a
reliable source to meet high priority residential and
commercial demand on peak days. It's also a valuable asset
because traditional storage allows distribution companies
to warehouse gas during lower-priced periods instead of
having to purchase the commodity at the most unpredictable
times. Natural gas production has never been high enough
to meet peak demand in the winter, necessitating the use
of storage to supplement that shortage.
Local distribution companies and others use a number of
strategies to cope with the potential of higher natural
gas prices. It's a guessing game as to whether prices will
go up and so many buy at varying points in the cycle so as
to hedge against extremes. With prices at $6 per million
BTUs right now, it may be a bargain to buy as much as
possible and then to inject it until the winter heating
season. And, if there's another major hurricane, the price
could really shoot up. Then, again, if prices fall, those
distribution companies bet wrong.
Aquila leverages its storage assets. Its Katy facility,
for example, can be cycled multiple times a year. It says
if utilities had storage leases that gave them the ability
to frequently inject and withdraw natural gas, they could
better manage their electricity purchases from base-load
plants. While storage typically acts as a hedge against
future higher prices, utilities could certainly sell any
surpluses on the open market during tight times.
Along those lines, Atlanta-based AGL Resources has
proposed expanding one of its salt-dome storage facilities
in Louisiana that can be turned over many times a year.
The storage facility is located near the Henry Hub. That
connects Louisiana's producers and end users to the
nation's natural gas pipeline energy infrastructure and it
is the central pricing point for natural gas futures.
"Our proven record (has) provided benefits to local
distribution companies -- and their end-use residential,
commercial and industrial customers...," says David
Jewell, vice president of operations at AGL's facility in
Louisiana. "Natural gas salt dome storage is safe and one
of the best methods to protect against supply
interruptions. Storage has been, and is expected to
continue to be, important during hurricanes, and
particularly now that price stability and supplies are
important."
As the nation's thirst for new energy supplies gets
stronger, so, too, will the demand for natural gas. In
turn, that will increase the value of storage that helps
utilities meet peak demand during the winter heating
months. With hurricane season upon us and the potential
long-term implications of that, the added reliability is
comforting.
For far more extensive news on the energy/power
visit: http://www.energycentral.com
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