US Weather Commentary

NORTHEAST:

• Heavy tropical rains and tropical humidity have capped off a mild and wet June, and reinforced already saturated ground. Highs in the 70's & 80's (sub-90°F) will be the consistent theme for the Northeast quadrant of the Nation through the first week of July.
• While humid evenings and bouts of mugginess need to be eyed, routine frontal passages will help ensure that locations such as Detroit, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Burlington, Hartford and even New York, will have some of the largest reductions in cumulative Cooling Degree Days from Summer 2005 to Summer 2006 [June-September].

SOUTHEAST [the "Right Foot" or our National "Omega" Forecast of 2006 Heat]:

• With the exception of the Carolinas, Southeastern States have essentially avoided the heavy rains from Alberto and the East U.S. Stationary front, so drought remains, and that means days >90°F (and above normal) will be quick to return over the next several days.  Neutral NAO plaguing all of East will ease back temps to more seasonable levels during the first week of July.
• With (warmer) ridging extending eastward into the South at times, critical days (i.e. days > 90°F, 95°F, 100°F) should be more numerous than in 2005, and with Hurricane Season upon us, substantial stresses on both the Agricultural and Energy Industries are likely.

NORTH-CENTRAL [the "Crown" or our National "Omega" Forecast of 2006 Heat]:  

• Temperatures will briefly rebound across the Western Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Upper Mississippi Valley, but Minneapolis will probably have to wait to see its first day of 2006 breaking 90°F, and all truly hot weather will be confined more toward the Mid-Con and High Plains.  In these areas, thousands of square miles (acres) between the Rockies and Mississippi River are sustaining drought conditions the like of which have not been seen since 1988 or even the Dust Bowl era.
• Parts of Missouri, Illinois  and Indiana need to be monitored for possible worsening drought (approaching severe conditions currently present in South Dakota and Nebraska), and thus the potential for surface-enhanced heat-waves during the Summer.

SOUTH-CENTRAL [the "Base" or our National "Omega" Forecast of 2006 Heat]

• With the book closing on a decisively hot June for Texas and the rest of the South-Central U.S., some cloudiness and storms will help counteract the searing effects of the drought, keeping readings hot but below 100°F through the first week of July.  Thereafter, we must prepare for ridging and surface conditions to propel temperatures back to potentially extreme levels deeper into July.
• Being near the epicenter of our forecasted "Omega" or "Horseshoe" Summer pattern, these aforementioned States will be most consistently under the influence of ridging, subsidence and compressional warming, almost regardless of how the Hemispheric patterns oscillate this Summer.

NORTHWEST:

• After a brief 48-hour heat burst skyrocketed temperatures across the Pacific Northeast and Northern California this week, the coasts will ease back substantially with warmth focused much further inland over the High Plains and Northern/Central Rockies.
• The protection of moist surface conditions which much of the Northwest has enjoyed, is slowly being eroded and could become an issue deeper into the Summer when U.S. ridging skews westward.

SOUTHWEST [the "Left Foot" or our National "Omega" Forecast of 2006 Heat]:

• Surface drought but mostly ridging, continues to propel the 4-Corner States to unseasonably warm levels and bring 100°F-110°F readings across Arizona, Nevada, and the Southern California Valleys into the first week of July [correspondingly Phoenix, Tucson and Las Vegas will all register their hottest June on record].  With almost every day of June in the 70's, Los Angeles [LAX] shot up to 94°F yesterday thanks to a Santa Ana wind, but temperatures have immediately subsided for coastal regions as ridging is gradually nudged further toward the inland States.
• Westward oscillations of upper-air ridging along with interior drought versus coastal maritime influences, should make for quite a heterogeneous Summer for the Southwest quadrant of the Nation.

Tropics Status:

Five days came and went and the NHC never officially declared Tropical Depression #2.  Nonetheless, the tropical "system" produced Tropical Storm force winds (> 40 mph) across coastal North Carolina, over the Chesapeake Bay region, and into the Northeast this morning, along with heavy rains which pushed Washington D.C.'s total to over 1 FOOT(!) of precipitation since Friday 06/23.  NHC has criteria for storm declarations, and if they don't observe those criteria being met, even if others do, then official advisories can not be issued.

Gulf: Sea temperatures slightly above normal and much cooler than last year. Temperatures range from around 82°F in Northeast sections to 90°F in isolated areas along the Northern and Western coastlines. Wind Shear UNFAVORABLE. No systems of note.

Bahamas/Sargasso Sea: Sea temperatures normal but warmer than 2005, and have now warmed up sufficiently for tropical development. Temperatures range from the upper 70's around Bermuda to the upper 80's near the Bahamian Islands. Wind Shear UNFAVORABLE in some pockets. No significant systems of note after the tropical system made landfall in North Carolina yesterday. There is however another upper-level low between Bermuda and Puerto Rico which we will monitor for you, but the environment will become rather inhospitable for tropical development.

Tropical Atlantic/Caribbean: Water temperatures warm, but far shy of last year's record values. Wind Shear SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. Wave East of the Windward Islands has to be watched, but development of this feature may be tough with wind shear encroaching on it from the North.

Note:During the 2004 and 2005 Seasons, NHC declared the first classification of a tropical system in either the 5 PM or 11 PM advisory periods an imbalanced 65% of the time, and outside of the work day (i.e. weeknights, weekends) an imbalanced 79% of the time.  So far in 2006, Tropical Depression #1 (later Alberto), was officially declared over a weekend.

Related link of interest (re: NY Hurricane threats):  http://www.weather2000.com/NY_Hurricanes.html

Forecasting the Forecast: