US Weather Commentary

Location: New York
Author: Michael Schlacter
Date: Monday, June 26, 2006

After Oscillating Eastward, Ridging Skews Westward Again to Wrap up June

For each U.S. region listed below, the first bullet-point will focus on medium-range comments (updated each discussion), while the second bullet-point will focus on Seasonal comments (updated as research warrants)

NORTHEAST:

Saturated ground, active storm tracks and frequent frontal passages will ensure that New England and New York State do not witness any 90's until July, with Mid-Atlantic hubs like Philadelphia, Baltimore and D.C. having their last hurrah last week. Highs in the 70's & 80's which will be the main theme for the Northeast to close out June clinching a net mild month for the first Summer month of 2006.
While humid evenings and bouts of mugginess need to be eyed, routine frontal passages will help ensure that locations such as Detroit, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Burlington, Hartford and even New York, will have some of the largest reductions in cumulative Cooling Degree Days from Summer 2005 to Summer 2006 [June-September].

SOUTHEAST [the "Right Foot" or our National "Omega" Forecast of 2006 Heat]:

If there was ever an example of the consequences of a little ridging and subsidence combined with severe drought, it was Thursday (and again Friday) when Atlanta hit 97°F, Macon, Ga hit 101°F and Rome, GA (at the base of the Appalachians) hit 105°F! With ridging in the process of re-focusing back a little westward again, Cooling Degrees Days will be plentiful, but extreme critical days with take a breather over the final 7 days of June.
With (warmer) ridging extending eastward into the South at times, critical days (i.e. days > 90°F, 95°F, 100°F) should be more numerous than in 2005, and with Hurricane Season upon us, substantial stresses on both the Agricultural and Energy Industries are likely.

NORTH-CENTRAL [the "Crown" or our National "Omega" Forecast of 2006 Heat]:

Locations across the Western Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Upper Mississippi Valley have already returned to more Seasonable conditions with 70's and 80's similar to their Northeastern counterparts. Further West, thousands of square miles (acres) between the Rockies and Mississippi River have been sustaining drought conditions the like of which have not been seen since 1988 or even the Dust Bowl era, so the driest of areas are susceptible to soaring temperatures any time clear skies and upper-air ridging sets up.
Parts of Iowa, Missouri and Illinois need to be monitored for possible worsening drought (approaching severe conditions currently present in South Dakota and Nebraska), and thus the potential for surface-enhanced heat-waves during the Summer.

SOUTH-CENTRAL [the "Base" or our National "Omega" Forecast of 2006 Heat]:

Stifling humidity will be the next obstacle as Houston will quickly rebound with several days reaching back into the low/mid-90's to close out the month and unfortunately the recent mesoscale flooding has erased the surface and agrarian drought for only a tiny fraction of the South-Central region's ongoing extreme drought. 100°F+ temperatures should take a breather across the region until July, except for locations near the Rio Grande Valley.
Being near the epicenter of our forecasted "Omega" or "Horseshoe" Summer pattern, these aforementioned States will be most consistently under the influence of ridging, subsidence and compressional warming, almost regardless of how the Hemispheric patterns oscillate this Summer.

NORTHWEST:

In the same ilk of the cool June thus far, strong summer sunshine will need to overcome cooler marine layers along coastal areas of Washington and British Columbia, but the potential exists for spikes of warmth across the interior (i.e. some 90's in Spokane and Portland) as Central U.S. Ridging skews westward again for June's back-half.
While southern zones got copious amounts of precipitation in 2006, stream-flow prospects for Montana, Washington and British Columbia are average, and emerging drought for western Washington and Oregon should be monitored for potential brief bouts of heat during the Summer.

SOUTHWEST [the "Left Foot" or our National "Omega" Forecast of 2006 Heat]:

Surface drought (starting to match that of the Plains) combined with ridging, continues to propel the 4-Corner States to unseasonably warm levels and bring 100°F-110°F readings across Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, along with the California Valleys, straight through the end of June.
Westward oscillations of upper-air ridging along with interior drought versus coastal maritime influences, should make for quite a heterogeneous Summer for the Southwest quadrant of the Nation.

Related link of interest (re: May-Summer correlations): http://www.weather2000.com/nyc.html

Other Tropics Status:

Gulf: Sea temperatures above normal in Northwest sections, but slightly cooler normal where Alberto stirred up the waters. Temperatures range from around 80°F in Northeast sections to 88°F along the Northern and Western coastlines. Wind Shear BECOMING FAVORABLE. No systems of note.

Bahamas/Sargasso Sea: Sea temperatures normal but warmer than 2005, and have now warmed up sufficiently for tropical development. Temperatures range from the upper 70's around Bermuda to the upper 80's near the Bahamian Islands. Wind Shear FAVORABLE in some pockets. Upper level low over the Bahamas has to be watched as it has cut off from the main Jet Stream. System has the potential to develop.

Tropical Atlantic/Caribbean: Water temperatures warm, but shy of last year's record values. Wind Shear UNFAVORABLE. Wave train continues off of Africa, but wind shear is too strong at present, and waters are only marginal to sustain development North of 10°N latitude. No systems of note.

Note: During the 2004 and 2005 Seasons, NHC declared the first classification of a tropical system in either the 5 PM or 11 PM advisory periods an imbalanced 65% of the time, and outside of the work day (i.e. weeknights, weekends) an imbalanced 79% of the time. So far in 2006, Tropical Depression #1 (later Alberto), was officially declared over a weekend.

Related link of interest (re: NY Hurricane threats): http://www.weather2000.com/NY_Hurricanes.html

Forecasting the Forecast [06/22]:

Aside from the Western third of the country, which will again be above normal, a weak regime will set up over the nation. This will provide continued ambiguity in NWS outlooks, similar to yesterday's 8-14 day pattern, but there should be some cool temperatures indicated over the Southern part of the country.