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LONDON, England, November 15, 2006 (Refocus
Weekly)
A shift to renewables, nuclear and low-carbon
fuels could reduce carbon emissions by one-quarter by 2050,
according to a report from PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Rapid economic growth in China, India and other emerging
countries, combined with moderate growth in advanced economies,
could have serious long-term consequences for global energy
consumption and carbon emissions, the consulting firm explains in
‘The World in 2050: implications of global growth for carbon
emissions & climate change policy.’ If countries do nothing, global
carbon emissions could double by 2050 which could have potentially
serious longer-term implications for global warming and related
climate change.
Adoption of a ‘Green Growth Plus’ strategy could allow continued
healthy growth of the economy while controlling GHG emissions, and a
strategy with three elements could stabilize atmospheric CO2
concentrations at acceptable levels. The elements include a broad
range of energy efficiency measures, fuel mix changes and new carbon
capture and storage technologies, including renewables.
There could be significant costs if governments delay, given the
time required to develop and implement necessary technologies and
policies, the report warns. As emissions from emerging economies
continue to rise over coming decades, economies of the G7 developed
nations (US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy, Canada) may need to
take the lead in reducing their carbon emissions.
“As they increase in relative size to overtake the current G7
countries, the emerging ‘E7 economies’ will increasingly provide the
motor for global growth and could account for almost half of global
carbon emissions by 2050,” says author John Hawksworth of
PricewaterhouseCoopers. “But can the world sustain such rapid growth
without serious adverse effects on its climate? This new report
provides one possible answer to how this might be achieved.”
The report considers six scenarios for the evolution of global
energy consumption and related carbon emissions, but focuses on a
'Green Growth & CCS' scenario which reduce emissions from a greener
fuel mix that has 30% of primary energy coming from renewables and
nuclear by 2050, an annual efficiency gain of 1% above historic
trends, and widespread use of carbon capture and storage
technologies. This scenario could be achieved through a combination
of energy efficiency increases, fuel mix changes, technological
developments, carbon taxes and carbon trading.
“Our analysis suggests that there are technologically feasible and
relatively low-cost options for controlling carbon emissions to the
atmosphere,” adds Hawksworth. “Estimates suggest that the level of
GDP might be reduced by no more than 2-3% in 2050 if this strategy
was followed, equivalent to sacrificing only a year of economic
growth for the sake of reducing carbon emissions in 2050 by 60%
compared to our baseline scenario.”
“If this is to be achieved, it will take further concerted action by
governments, businesses and individuals over a broad range of
measures to boost energy efficiency, adopt a greener fuel mix and
introduce carbon capture and storage technologies in power plants
and other major industrial facilities,” he explains.
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